Sesvete 1–0 Orijent 1919: Result & Stats | First NL

Sesvete

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orijent 1919

11/28/2025

First NL · Round 17Stadion sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Sesvete45%

×Draw25%

Orijent 191930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SesveteExpected goals in this matchOrijent 1919

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

Sesvete

1.56

Orijent 1919

1.23

Sesvete creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 109 away

1.58

creates per match

1.32

1.14

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sesvete

1.58

Orijent 1919

1.32

allows per match

Sesvete

1.14

Orijent 1919

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par

Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

Orijent 1919 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw

70%

Sesvete or Orijent 1919

75%

Draw or Orijent 1919

55%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+

23%

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals

79%

Sesvete 2+ goals

46%

Sesvete 3+ goals

21%

Orijent 1919 1+ goals

71%

Orijent 1919 2+ goals

35%

Orijent 1919 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)

60%

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.14 · 104 matches

Orijent 1919 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 1.58 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Orijent 1919 attack 1.32 + Sesvete defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sesvete scores more

45%

level

25%

Orijent 1919 scores more

30%

Sesvete at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff