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Orijent 1919 vs Sesvete — First NL 2018

Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sesvete
Sesvete
4/27/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 28Stadion Krimeja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Orijent 191941%
×Draw27%
Sesvete32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orijent 1919
1.30
Sesvete
1.11

Orijent 1919 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 103 away

creates per match

Orijent 1919
1.36
Sesvete
1.11

allows per match

Orijent 1919
1.11
Sesvete
1.24

finishing

Orijent 1919+0.00on par
Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orijent 1919 ↓

Sesvete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orijent 1919 or draw
68%
Orijent 1919 or Sesvete
73%
Draw or Sesvete
59%

Winning margin

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+
18%
Sesvete wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orijent 1919 1+ goals
73%
Orijent 1919 2+ goals
37%
Orijent 1919 3+ goals
14%
Sesvete 1+ goals
67%
Sesvete 2+ goals
30%
Sesvete 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)
56%
Sesvete (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orijent 1919 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.11 · 108 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orijent 1919 attack 1.36 + Sesvete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sesvete attack 1.11 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orijent 1919 scores more
41%
level
27%
Sesvete scores more
32%

Orijent 1919 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orijent 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Orijent 1919 2–0 Sesvete

Orijent 1919 beat Sesvete 2-0 in First NL on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Krimeja in Rijeka.