Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sesvete vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Sesvete
Sesvete
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
I. Abramovic 82'
Unknown 66', 61'
F. Culjak 59'
M. Guja 56'
5/12/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 27Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sesvete75%
×Draw16%
NK Osijek II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sesvete
2.50
NK Osijek II
0.77

Sesvete creates 225% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sesvete
2.60
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Sesvete
0.87
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw
90%
Sesvete or NK Osijek II
84%
Draw or NK Osijek II
25%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+
52%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals
92%
Sesvete 2+ goals
71%
Sesvete 3+ goals
45%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
54%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
18%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)
89%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 2.60 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.50

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Sesvete defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sesvete scores more
75%
level
16%
NK Osijek II scores more
10%

Sesvete at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
M. Guja
59'
F. Culjak
61'
66'
82'
I. Abramovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sesvete 5 – 0 NK Osijek II

Sesvete beat NK Osijek II 5-0 in Second NL on May 12, 2023.

Goals: M. Guja (56'), F. Culjak (59'), ? (61', 66'), I. Abramovic (82').

The match was played at Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik in Sesvete.