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NK Osijek II vs Sesvete — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sesvete
Sesvete
11/5/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 12Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II24%
×Draw23%
Sesvete53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.10
Sesvete
1.77

Sesvete creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Sesvete
1.67

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Sesvete
0.73

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Sesvete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
47%
NK Osijek II or Sesvete
77%
Draw or Sesvete
76%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
9%
Sesvete wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
67%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
30%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
10%
Sesvete 1+ goals
83%
Sesvete 2+ goals
53%
Sesvete 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
31%
Sesvete (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Sesvete defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sesvete attack 1.67 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
24%
level
23%
Sesvete scores more
53%

Sesvete at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Osijek II vs Sesvete

Sesvete beat NK Osijek II 2-0 in Second NL on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.