Sesvete 2–0 Dubrava Zagreb: Result & Stats

Sesvete

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dubrava Zagreb

3/3/2026

First NL · Round 19Stadion sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Sesvete47%

×Draw26%

Dubrava Zagreb27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SesveteExpected goals in this matchDubrava Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.06

Sesvete

1.47

Dubrava Zagreb

1.06

Sesvete creates 39% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 106 away

1.58

creates per match

0.98

1.14

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sesvete

1.58

Dubrava Zagreb

0.98

allows per match

Sesvete

1.14

Dubrava Zagreb

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw

73%

Sesvete or Dubrava Zagreb

74%

Draw or Dubrava Zagreb

53%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+

23%

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals

77%

Sesvete 2+ goals

43%

Sesvete 3+ goals

18%

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals

65%

Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals

29%

Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)

63%

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.14 · 104 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 1.58 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + Sesvete defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sesvete scores more

47%

level

26%

Dubrava Zagreb scores more

27%

Sesvete at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff