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Dubrava Zagreb vs Sesvete — First NL 2018

Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sesvete
Sesvete
9/26/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 8SRC Pescenica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Dubrava Zagreb40%
×Draw27%
Sesvete33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubrava Zagreb
1.31
Sesvete
1.15

Dubrava Zagreb creates 14% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 103 away

creates per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.37
Sesvete
1.11

allows per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.19
Sesvete
1.24

finishing

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par
Sesvete+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubrava Zagreb ↓

Sesvete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dubrava Zagreb or draw
67%
Dubrava Zagreb or Sesvete
73%
Draw or Sesvete
60%

Winning margin

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
18%
Sesvete wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
73%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
38%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
14%
Sesvete 1+ goals
68%
Sesvete 2+ goals
32%
Sesvete 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
55%
Sesvete (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubrava Zagreb at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Sesvete away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubrava Zagreb attack 1.37 + Sesvete defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sesvete attack 1.11 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dubrava Zagreb scores more
40%
level
27%
Sesvete scores more
33%

Dubrava Zagreb at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dubrava Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Dubrava Zagreb 0–2 Sesvete

Sesvete beat Dubrava Zagreb 2-0 in First NL on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at SRC Pescenica in Zagreb.