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Sestao River vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sestao River
Sestao River
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
4/13/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sestao River44%
×Draw28%
Real Unión28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sestao River
1.31
Real Unión
0.99

Sestao River creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sestao River
0.97
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Sestao River
1.00
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw
72%
Sestao River or Real Unión
72%
Draw or Real Unión
56%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+
20%
Real Unión wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals
73%
Sestao River 2+ goals
38%
Sestao River 3+ goals
14%
Real Unión 1+ goals
63%
Real Unión 2+ goals
26%
Real Unión 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)
61%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 0.97 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.31

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Sestao River defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sestao River scores more
44%
level
28%
Real Unión scores more
28%

Sestao River at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sestao River vs Real Unión

Sestao River beat Real Unión 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Llanas in Sestao.