Real Unión 2–1 Sestao River: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sestao River

9/28/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Unión46%

×Draw26%

Sestao River28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchSestao River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.08

Real Unión

1.46

Sestao River

1.08

Real Unión creates 35% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.46

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Sestao River

1.05

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Sestao River

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Sestao River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

72%

Real Unión or Sestao River

74%

Draw or Sestao River

54%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

22%

Sestao River wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

77%

Real Unión 2+ goals

43%

Real Unión 3+ goals

18%

Sestao River 1+ goals

66%

Sestao River 2+ goals

29%

Sestao River 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

62%

Sestao River (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Sestao River defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sestao River attack 1.05 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Unión scores more

46%

level

26%

Sestao River scores more

28%

Real Unión at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff