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Sestao River vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sestao River
Sestao River
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
12/16/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sestao River40%
×Draw29%
Osasuna II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sestao River
1.21
Osasuna II
1.02

Sestao River creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sestao River
0.97
Osasuna II
1.05

allows per match

Sestao River
1.00
Osasuna II
1.44

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw
69%
Sestao River or Osasuna II
71%
Draw or Osasuna II
60%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+
17%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals
70%
Sestao River 2+ goals
34%
Sestao River 3+ goals
12%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
64%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
27%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)
57%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 0.97 + Osasuna II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Osasuna II attack 1.05 + Sestao River defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sestao River scores more
40%
level
29%
Osasuna II scores more
31%

Sestao River at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sestao River 2 – 1 Osasuna II

Sestao River beat Osasuna II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Las Llanas in Sestao.