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Osasuna II vs Sestao River — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sestao River
Sestao River
5/12/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Osasuna II39%
×Draw27%
Sestao River34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.27
Sestao River
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.09
Sestao River
1.05

allows per match

Osasuna II
1.26
Sestao River
1.45

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
66%
Osasuna II or Sestao River
73%
Draw or Sestao River
61%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
17%
Sestao River wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
72%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
36%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
14%
Sestao River 1+ goals
69%
Sestao River 2+ goals
32%
Sestao River 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
54%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Sestao River defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sestao River attack 1.05 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Osasuna II scores more
39%
level
27%
Sestao River scores more
34%

Osasuna II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Osasuna II 0–1 Sestao River

Sestao River beat Osasuna II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar in Tajonar.