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Sestao River vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Sestao River
Sestao River
CANC
22:00
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 38Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sestao River61%
×Draw24%
Lagun Onak15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sestao River
1.66
Lagun Onak
0.69

Sestao River creates 141% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 114 away

creates per match

Sestao River
2.00
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Sestao River
0.42
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw
85%
Sestao River or Lagun Onak
76%
Draw or Lagun Onak
39%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+
34%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals
81%
Sestao River 2+ goals
49%
Sestao River 3+ goals
23%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
50%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
15%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)
80%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.42 · 26 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 2.00 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Sestao River defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sestao River scores more
61%
level
24%
Lagun Onak scores more
15%

Sestao River at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sestao River host Lagun Onak

May 16, 2020: Sestao River take on Lagun Onak in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sestao River host Lagun Onak at Estadio Las Llanas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.