Lagun Onak 0–0 Sestao River: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sestao River

1/4/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lagun Onak33%

×Draw27%

Sestao River40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchSestao River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.36

Lagun Onak

1.20

Sestao River

1.36

Sestao River creates 13% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 28 away

1.35

creates per match

1.75

0.97

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Sestao River

1.75

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Sestao River

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Sestao River →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

60%

Lagun Onak or Sestao River

73%

Draw or Sestao River

67%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

14%

Sestao River wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

70%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

34%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

12%

Sestao River 1+ goals

74%

Sestao River 2+ goals

39%

Sestao River 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

45%

Sestao River (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Sestao River defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sestao River attack 1.75 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

33%

level

27%

Sestao River scores more

40%

Sestao River at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Ugaitz Kerejeta← Donazar

60'

De Eguino← Monteiro

70'

Óscar Martín← Ximon Aranguren

73'

Beñat Uranga← Manterola

81'

Ekhi Gonzalez← Gereta

Lagun

Sestao

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aitor Zubizarreta

59'▲Ugaitz Kerejeta←▼Donazar

73'▲Beñat Uranga←▼Manterola

81'▲Ekhi Gonzalez←▼Gereta

Lagun Onak substitutes

KerejetaUrangaGonzalez

Manager: Ibón Etxebarrieta

60'▲De Eguino←▼Monteiro

70'▲Óscar Martín←▼Ximon Aranguren

Sestao River substitutes

EguinoMartín

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 0–0 Sestao River

Lagun Onak and Sestao River drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.

Lagun Onak vs Sestao River — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 0–0 Sestao River