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Sestao River vs Gimnástica Segoviana — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sestao River
Sestao River
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
5/11/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sestao River52%
×Draw25%
Gimnástica Segoviana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sestao River
1.61
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00

Sestao River creates 61% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sestao River
0.97
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00

allows per match

Sestao River
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
2.26

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par
Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw
76%
Sestao River or Gimnástica Segoviana
75%
Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana
48%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+
27%
Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals
80%
Sestao River 2+ goals
48%
Sestao River 3+ goals
22%
Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
63%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
26%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)
69%
Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 0.97 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.00 + Sestao River defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sestao River scores more
52%
level
25%
Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
24%

Sestao River at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Sestao River 1–2 Gimnástica Segoviana

Gimnástica Segoviana beat Sestao River 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Llanas in Sestao.