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Gimnástica Segoviana vs Sestao River — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sestao River
Sestao River
11/17/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana40%
×Draw27%
Sestao River33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.35
Sestao River
1.21

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.26
Sestao River
1.05

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
1.37
Sestao River
1.45

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
67%
Gimnástica Segoviana or Sestao River
73%
Draw or Sestao River
60%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
18%
Sestao River wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
74%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
39%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
15%
Sestao River 1+ goals
70%
Sestao River 2+ goals
34%
Sestao River 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
54%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + Sestao River defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sestao River attack 1.05 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
40%
level
27%
Sestao River scores more
33%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Sestao River

Gimnástica Segoviana and Sestao River drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera in Segovia.