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Servette II vs Luzern II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Servette II
Servette II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Luzern II
Luzern II
5/12/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 32Centre Sportif Bois-des-Frères Terrain 1 Libellules

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Servette II36%
×Draw21%
Luzern II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette II
1.90
Luzern II
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Servette II
1.53
Luzern II
2.04

allows per match

Servette II
2.12
Luzern II
2.26

finishing

Servette II+0.00on par
Luzern II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette II ↓

Luzern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Servette II or draw
57%
Servette II or Luzern II
79%
Draw or Luzern II
64%

Winning margin

Servette II wins by 2+
19%
Luzern II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Servette II 1+ goals
85%
Servette II 2+ goals
56%
Servette II 3+ goals
29%
Luzern II 1+ goals
87%
Luzern II 2+ goals
61%
Luzern II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Servette II (draw refunded)
46%
Luzern II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Luzern II away — creates 2.04, concedes 2.26 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette II attack 1.53 + Luzern II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Luzern II attack 2.04 + Servette II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Servette II scores more
36%
level
21%
Luzern II scores more
43%

Luzern II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luzern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Servette II vs Luzern II

Servette II and Luzern II drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Centre Sportif Bois-des-Frères Terrain 1 Libellules in Vernier.