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Luzern II vs Servette II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Luzern II
Luzern II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Servette II
Servette II
11/4/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 15Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Luzern II52%
×Draw21%
Servette II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzern II
2.13
Servette II
1.49

Luzern II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Luzern II
2.38
Servette II
1.24

allows per match

Luzern II
1.74
Servette II
1.88

finishing

Luzern II+0.00on par
Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzern II ↓

Servette II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Luzern II or draw
73%
Luzern II or Servette II
79%
Draw or Servette II
48%

Winning margin

Luzern II wins by 2+
31%
Servette II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luzern II 1+ goals
88%
Luzern II 2+ goals
63%
Luzern II 3+ goals
35%
Servette II 1+ goals
77%
Servette II 2+ goals
44%
Servette II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Luzern II (draw refunded)
66%
Servette II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzern II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

Servette II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzern II attack 2.38 + Servette II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.13

Servette II attack 1.24 + Luzern II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Luzern II scores more
52%
level
21%
Servette II scores more
27%

Luzern II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Luzern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luzern II vs Servette II

Luzern II beat Servette II 4-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kleinfeld in Kriens.