Servette II 1–3 Étoile Carouge: Result & Stats

Servette II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Étoile Carouge

9/17/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 7Centre Sportif Bois-des-Frères Terrain 1 Libellules

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Servette II30%

×Draw22%

Étoile Carouge47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette IIExpected goals in this matchÉtoile Carouge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.88

Servette II

1.47

Étoile Carouge

1.88

Étoile Carouge creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

1.53

creates per match

1.63

2.12

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Servette II

1.53

Étoile Carouge

1.63

allows per match

Servette II

2.12

Étoile Carouge

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Servette II+0.00on par

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette II ↓

Étoile Carouge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Servette II or draw

53%

Servette II or Étoile Carouge

78%

Draw or Étoile Carouge

70%

Winning margin

Servette II wins by 2+

14%

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Servette II 1+ goals

77%

Servette II 2+ goals

43%

Servette II 3+ goals

18%

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals

85%

Étoile Carouge 2+ goals

56%

Étoile Carouge 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Servette II (draw refunded)

39%

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Étoile Carouge away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette II attack 1.53 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Étoile Carouge attack 1.63 + Servette II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Servette II scores more

30%

level

22%

Étoile Carouge scores more

47%

Étoile Carouge at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff