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Étoile Carouge vs Servette II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Servette II
Servette II
3/23/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 24Stade de la Fontenette

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Étoile Carouge56%
×Draw22%
Servette II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Étoile Carouge
1.97
Servette II
1.18

Étoile Carouge creates 67% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

Étoile Carouge
2.06
Servette II
1.24

allows per match

Étoile Carouge
1.11
Servette II
1.88

finishing

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par
Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Étoile Carouge ↓

Servette II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Étoile Carouge or draw
77%
Étoile Carouge or Servette II
78%
Draw or Servette II
44%

Winning margin

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+
33%
Servette II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals
86%
Étoile Carouge 2+ goals
58%
Étoile Carouge 3+ goals
31%
Servette II 1+ goals
69%
Servette II 2+ goals
33%
Servette II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)
71%
Servette II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Étoile Carouge at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Servette II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Étoile Carouge attack 2.06 + Servette II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Servette II attack 1.24 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Étoile Carouge scores more
56%
level
22%
Servette II scores more
23%

Étoile Carouge at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Étoile Carouge 3–2 Servette II

Étoile Carouge beat Servette II 3-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Fontenette in Carouge.