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Servette II vs Cham — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Servette II
Servette II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cham
Cham
3/17/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 23Centre Sportif Bois-des-Frères Terrain 1 Libellules

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Servette II35%
×Draw22%
Cham43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette II
1.63
Cham
1.84

Cham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

Servette II
1.53
Cham
1.56

allows per match

Servette II
2.12
Cham
1.72

finishing

Servette II+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette II ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Servette II or draw
57%
Servette II or Cham
78%
Draw or Cham
65%

Winning margin

Servette II wins by 2+
17%
Cham wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Servette II 1+ goals
80%
Servette II 2+ goals
48%
Servette II 3+ goals
22%
Cham 1+ goals
84%
Cham 2+ goals
55%
Cham 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Servette II (draw refunded)
45%
Cham (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Cham away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette II attack 1.53 + Cham defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cham attack 1.56 + Servette II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Servette II scores more
35%
level
22%
Cham scores more
43%

Cham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Servette II vs Cham

Servette II and Cham drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Centre Sportif Bois-des-Frères Terrain 1 Libellules in Vernier.