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Cham vs Servette II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Cham
Cham
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Servette II
Servette II
9/9/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 6Stadion Eizmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cham50%
×Draw22%
Servette II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.92
Servette II
1.40

Cham creates 37% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cham
1.95
Servette II
1.24

allows per match

Cham
1.55
Servette II
1.88

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Servette II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Cham or draw
72%
Cham or Servette II
78%
Draw or Servette II
50%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
28%
Servette II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
85%
Cham 2+ goals
57%
Cham 3+ goals
30%
Servette II 1+ goals
75%
Servette II 2+ goals
41%
Servette II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
64%
Servette II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 105 matches

Servette II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 1.95 + Servette II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

Servette II attack 1.24 + Cham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cham scores more
50%
level
22%
Servette II scores more
28%

Cham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cham vs Servette II

Cham beat Servette II 4-3 in 1. Liga Promotion on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Eizmoos in Cham.