Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Servette FC vs Ludogorets — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Servette FC
Servette FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
2/15/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsStade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Servette FC67%
×Draw21%
Ludogorets12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette FC
1.88
Ludogorets
0.63

Servette FC creates 198% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Servette FC
1.00
Ludogorets
1.00

allows per match

Servette FC
0.25
Ludogorets
2.75

finishing

Servette FC+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw
88%
Servette FC or Ludogorets
79%
Draw or Ludogorets
33%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+
41%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals
85%
Servette FC 2+ goals
56%
Servette FC 3+ goals
29%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
47%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
13%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)
85%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.00 + Ludogorets defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ludogorets attack 1.00 + Servette FC defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Servette FC scores more
67%
level
21%
Ludogorets scores more
12%

Servette FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Servette FC 0–0 Ludogorets

Servette FC and Ludogorets drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Lancy.