Ludogorets 0–1 Servette FC: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Servette FC

2/22/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsHuvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ludogorets68%

×Draw24%

Servette FC8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchServette FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.35

Ludogorets

1.55

Servette FC

0.35

Ludogorets creates 343% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

0.50

0.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Ludogorets

1.60

Servette FC

0.50

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.20

Servette FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Servette FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Servette FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

92%

Ludogorets or Servette FC

76%

Draw or Servette FC

32%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

38%

Servette FC wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

79%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

46%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

20%

Servette FC 1+ goals

30%

Servette FC 2+ goals

5%

Servette FC 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

89%

Servette FC (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Servette FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 1.60 + Servette FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Servette FC attack 0.50 + Ludogorets defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ludogorets scores more

68%

level

24%

Servette FC scores more

8%

Ludogorets at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff