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Servette FC vs FC Lugano — Super League 2024

Servette FC
Servette FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
M. Stevanović 90'
D. Kutesa 84'
Keyan Varela 38'
A. Hajdari 9' (OG)
K. Tsunemoto 12' (OG)
5/15/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Championship Round - 3Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Servette FC42%
×Draw25%
FC Lugano33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette FC
1.55
FC Lugano
1.35

Servette FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

Servette FC
1.87
FC Lugano
1.18

allows per match

Servette FC
1.52
FC Lugano
1.23

finishing

Servette FC+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw
67%
Servette FC or FC Lugano
75%
Draw or FC Lugano
58%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+
21%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals
79%
Servette FC 2+ goals
46%
Servette FC 3+ goals
20%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
74%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
39%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)
56%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.87 + FC Lugano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.55

FC Lugano attack 1.18 + Servette FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Servette FC scores more
42%
level
25%
FC Lugano scores more
33%

Servette FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. CognatServette FCServette FC · M
8.2

Match Events

9'
A. HajdariOwn goal
12'
K. TsunemotoOwn goal
38'
Keyan Varela↳ E. Crivelli
56'
Uran Bislimi
56'
M. Valenzuela← A. El Wafi
56'
I. Aliseda← S. Vladi
62'
D. Kutesa← Keyan Varela
68'
H. Mahou← A. Grgic
74'
J. Guillemenot← A. Antunes
74'
G. Ondoua← E. Crivelli
77'
G. Koutsias← O. Doumbia
77'
R. Macek← Y. Cimignani
82'
Mattia Zanotti
84'
Dereck KutesaMissed penalty
84'
Mattia Bottani
84'
D. Kutesa
89'
Albian Hajdari
90+2'
T. Ouattara← M. Stevanović
90'
M. Stevanović↳ T. Cognat

Possession

50%Servette

Shots

15Servette

Pass accuracy

50%Servette

Statistics

ServetteFC
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots11
10Corners6
11Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots11
8On Target3
2Off Target4
5Blocked4
10Inside Box8
5Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
378Total Passes373
317Accurate Passes312
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls13
0Yellow Cards4
0Offsides1

Super League: Servette FC 4–1 FC Lugano

Servette FC beat FC Lugano 4-1 in Super League on May 15, 2025.

Goals: A. Hajdari (9' o.g.), K. Tsunemoto (12' o.g.), Keyan Varela (38'), D. Kutesa (84'), M. Stevanović (90').

Servette FC controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Lancy.