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FC Lugano vs Servette FC — Super League 2024

FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Servette FC
Servette FC
T. Ouattara 83'
E. Crivelli 31'
3/29/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Stadio di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Lugano45%
×Draw24%
Servette FC30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lugano
1.63
Servette FC
1.29

FC Lugano creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Lugano
1.82
Servette FC
1.52

allows per match

FC Lugano
1.06
Servette FC
1.43

finishing

FC Lugano+0.18scores more
Servette FC-0.02on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

Servette FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw
70%
FC Lugano or Servette FC
76%
Draw or Servette FC
55%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+
23%
Servette FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals
80%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
48%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
22%
Servette FC 1+ goals
72%
Servette FC 2+ goals
37%
Servette FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)
60%
Servette FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 6 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.82 + Servette FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Servette FC attack 1.52 + FC Lugano defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Lugano scores more
45%
level
24%
Servette FC scores more
30%

FC Lugano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. MallServette FCServette FC · G
9.7

Match Events

24'
Bradley Mazikou
26'
Albian Hajdari
31'
E. Crivelli↳ M. Stevanović
50'
Martim Marques← H. Mahmoud
54'
Martim Marques
57'
Mattia Zanotti
68'
K. Przybyłko← A. Hajdari
68'
O. Doumbia← Y. Cimignani
75'
D. Douline← G. Ondoua
76'
T. Ouattara← D. Kutesa
77'
A. Grgic← R. Macek
77'
S. Vladi← M. Valenzuela
83'
Renato Steffen
83'
T. Ouattara↳ K. Tsunemoto
86'
David Douline
87'
A. Ndoye← E. Crivelli
90+3'
Ousmane Doumbia
90+2'
Tiemoko Ouattara

Possession

57%FC

Shots

16FC

Pass accuracy

54%FC

Statistics

FCServette
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots9
2.08Expected Goals (xG)0.50
9Corners5
9Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots9
10On Target3
4Off Target1
2Blocked5
10Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
492Total Passes387
412Accurate Passes282
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves10
Discipline
9Fouls10
5Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Super League: FC Lugano 0–2 Servette FC

Servette FC beat FC Lugano 2-0 in Super League on March 29, 2025.

Goals: E. Crivelli (31'), T. Ouattara (83').

FC Lugano controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio di Cornaredo in Lugano.