Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Servette FC vs FC Lugano — Super League 2018

Servette FC
Servette FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
12/17/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Servette FC43%
×Draw25%
FC Lugano32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette FC
1.56
FC Lugano
1.32

Servette FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 147 away

creates per match

Servette FC
1.70
FC Lugano
1.39

allows per match

Servette FC
1.25
FC Lugano
1.43

finishing

Servette FC+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw
68%
Servette FC or FC Lugano
75%
Draw or FC Lugano
57%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+
21%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals
79%
Servette FC 2+ goals
46%
Servette FC 3+ goals
21%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
73%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
38%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)
57%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 129 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.43 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.70 + FC Lugano defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Lugano attack 1.39 + Servette FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Servette FC scores more
43%
level
25%
FC Lugano scores more
32%

Servette FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Servette FC 2–2 FC Lugano

Servette FC and FC Lugano drew 2-2 in Super League on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Lancy.