Serverense 0–1 Platges Calvià: Result & Stats

Serverense

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Platges Calvià

3/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 32Estadio Son Servera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Serverense27%

×Draw28%

Platges Calvià45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ServerenseExpected goals in this matchPlatges Calvià

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.34

Serverense

0.97

Platges Calvià

1.34

Platges Calvià creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 112 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.55

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Serverense

1.00

Platges Calvià

1.13

allows per match

Serverense

1.55

Platges Calvià

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serverense+0.00on par

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serverense ↓

Platges Calvià →

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Serverense or draw

55%

Serverense or Platges Calvià

72%

Draw or Platges Calvià

73%

Winning margin

Serverense wins by 2+

10%

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Serverense 1+ goals

62%

Serverense 2+ goals

25%

Serverense 3+ goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

74%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

39%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Serverense (draw refunded)

37%

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Serverense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Serverense attack 1.00 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Serverense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Serverense scores more

27%

level

28%

Platges Calvià scores more

45%

Platges Calvià at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff