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Platges Calvià vs Serverense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Serverense
Serverense
10/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Platges Calvià62%
×Draw22%
Serverense16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
1.83
Serverense
0.79

Platges Calvià creates 132% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 20 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
Serverense
0.75

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
Serverense
2.15

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
Serverense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Serverense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
84%
Platges Calvià or Serverense
78%
Draw or Serverense
38%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
36%
Serverense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
84%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
54%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
28%
Serverense 1+ goals
55%
Serverense 2+ goals
19%
Serverense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
80%
Serverense (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Serverense away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Serverense defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.83

Serverense attack 0.75 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
62%
level
22%
Serverense scores more
16%

Platges Calvià at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Platges Calvià 2 – 0 Serverense

Platges Calvià beat Serverense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf in Mallorca.