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Sertãozinho U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Santos U20
Santos U20
Kaio Ganga 84'
Y. Soares 31'
Padula 24'
5/30/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sertãozinho U2021%
×Draw25%
Santos U2054%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertãozinho U20
0.88
Santos U20
1.59

Santos U20 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sertãozinho U20
0.95
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Sertãozinho U20
1.55
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertãozinho U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sertãozinho U20 or draw
46%
Sertãozinho U20 or Santos U20
75%
Draw or Santos U20
79%

Winning margin

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
7%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
59%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
22%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
6%
Santos U20 1+ goals
80%
Santos U20 2+ goals
47%
Santos U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
28%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertãozinho U20 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertãozinho U20 attack 0.95 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sertãozinho U20 scores more
21%
level
25%
Santos U20 scores more
54%

Santos U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Padula
31'
Y. Soares
53'
84'
Kaio Ganga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Sertãozinho U20 0–3 Santos U20

Santos U20 beat Sertãozinho U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 30, 2026.

Goals: Padula (24'), Y. Soares (31'), Kaio Ganga (84').