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Santos U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santos U20
Santos U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
G. Lima 78'
Miguelito 74' (pen)
Rafael Freitas 67'
A. Villarreal 14'
9/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 6Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Santos U2072%
×Draw17%
Sertãozinho U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U20
2.48
Sertãozinho U20
0.90

Santos U20 creates 176% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

creates per match

Santos U20
3.00
Sertãozinho U20
1.13

allows per match

Santos U20
0.67
Sertãozinho U20
1.96

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par
Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw
88%
Santos U20 or Sertãozinho U20
83%
Draw or Sertãozinho U20
28%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+
49%
Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals
92%
Santos U20 2+ goals
70%
Santos U20 3+ goals
44%
Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
59%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
23%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)
86%
Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 3.00 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.48

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Santos U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Santos U20 scores more
72%
level
17%
Sertãozinho U20 scores more
12%

Santos U20 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Villarreal
67'
Rafael Freitas
74'
MiguelitoPenalty
78'
G. Lima

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Santos U20 4–0 Sertãozinho U20

Santos U20 beat Sertãozinho U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on September 14, 2024.

Goals: A. Villarreal (14'), Rafael Freitas (67'), Miguelito (74' pen), G. Lima (78').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Rei Pelé in Santos, São Paulo.