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Sertãozinho U20 vs Comercial U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Comercial U20
Comercial U20
L. Carniel 72' (OG)
F. Rodrigues 11'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sertãozinho U2043%
×Draw22%
Comercial U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertãozinho U20
1.88
Comercial U20
1.68

Sertãozinho U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sertãozinho U20
0.95
Comercial U20
1.80

allows per match

Sertãozinho U20
1.55
Comercial U20
2.80

finishing

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par
Comercial U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 69No: 3169%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertãozinho U20 ↓

Comercial U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sertãozinho U20 or draw
65%
Sertãozinho U20 or Comercial U20
78%
Draw or Comercial U20
57%

Winning margin

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
23%
Comercial U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
85%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
56%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
29%
Comercial U20 1+ goals
81%
Comercial U20 2+ goals
50%
Comercial U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Comercial U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertãozinho U20 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Comercial U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertãozinho U20 attack 0.95 + Comercial U20 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.88

Comercial U20 attack 1.80 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sertãozinho U20 scores more
43%
level
22%
Comercial U20 scores more
35%

Sertãozinho U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sertãozinho U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Rodrigues
72'
L. CarnielOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Sertãozinho U20 1–1 Comercial U20

Sertãozinho U20 and Comercial U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: F. Rodrigues (11'), L. Carniel (72' o.g.).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Frederico Dalmazo in Sertãozinho, São Paulo.