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Comercial U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Comercial U20
Comercial U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
Unknown 73', 54', 45+4', 4'
5/25/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Dr. Francisco de Palma Travassos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Comercial U2069%
×Draw17%
Sertãozinho U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comercial U20
2.68
Sertãozinho U20
1.17

Comercial U20 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

Comercial U20
3.40
Sertãozinho U20
1.13

allows per match

Comercial U20
1.20
Sertãozinho U20
1.96

finishing

Comercial U20+0.00on par
Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comercial U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Comercial U20 or draw
85%
Comercial U20 or Sertãozinho U20
83%
Draw or Sertãozinho U20
31%

Winning margin

Comercial U20 wins by 2+
48%
Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Comercial U20 1+ goals
93%
Comercial U20 2+ goals
74%
Comercial U20 3+ goals
49%
Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
69%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
33%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Comercial U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comercial U20 at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comercial U20 attack 3.40 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.68

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Comercial U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Comercial U20 scores more
69%
level
17%
Sertãozinho U20 scores more
15%

Comercial U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Comercial U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
45+4'
54'
73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Comercial U20 4–0 Sertãozinho U20

Comercial U20 beat Sertãozinho U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: ? (4', 45+4', 54', 73').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Francisco de Palma Travassos in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.