Sertanense 2–0 GRAP: Result & Stats

Sertanense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

GRAP

10/18/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 3Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sertanense61%

×Draw27%

GRAP13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SertanenseExpected goals in this matchGRAP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.50

Sertanense

1.45

GRAP

0.50

Sertanense creates 190% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.09

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Sertanense

1.09

GRAP

0.00

allows per match

Sertanense

1.00

GRAP

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par

GRAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

GRAP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw

87%

Sertanense or GRAP

73%

Draw or GRAP

39%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+

32%

GRAP wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals

77%

Sertanense 2+ goals

42%

Sertanense 3+ goals

18%

GRAP 1+ goals

39%

GRAP 2+ goals

9%

GRAP 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)

83%

GRAP (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

GRAP away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 1.09 + GRAP defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

GRAP attack 0.00 + Sertanense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sertanense scores more

61%

level

27%

GRAP scores more

13%

Sertanense at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sertanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff