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GRAP vs Sertanense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

GRAP
GRAP
CANC
15:00
Sertanense
Sertanense
1/31/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 14Campo da Charneca dos Pousos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GRAP14%
×Draw17%
Sertanense69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GRAP
1.06
Sertanense
2.52

Sertanense creates 138% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

GRAP
0.83
Sertanense
1.20

allows per match

GRAP
3.83
Sertanense
1.30

finishing

GRAP+0.00on par
Sertanense+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GRAP ↓

Sertanense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

GRAP or draw
31%
GRAP or Sertanense
83%
Draw or Sertanense
86%

Winning margin

GRAP wins by 2+
5%
Sertanense wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

GRAP 1+ goals
65%
GRAP 2+ goals
29%
GRAP 3+ goals
9%
Sertanense 1+ goals
92%
Sertanense 2+ goals
71%
Sertanense 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

GRAP (draw refunded)
17%
Sertanense (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GRAP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Sertanense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GRAP attack 0.83 + Sertanense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sertanense attack 1.20 + GRAP defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

GRAP scores more
14%
level
17%
Sertanense scores more
69%

Sertanense at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sertanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: GRAP host Sertanense

January 31, 2021: GRAP take on Sertanense in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

GRAP host Sertanense at Campo da Charneca dos Pousos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.