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Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Sertanense
Sertanense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
11/22/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 5Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sertanense33%
×Draw34%
Benfica Castelo Branco33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertanense
0.84
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sertanense
1.09
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.70

allows per match

Sertanense
1.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw
67%
Sertanense or Benfica Castelo Branco
66%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
67%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+
11%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals
57%
Sertanense 2+ goals
21%
Sertanense 3+ goals
5%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
57%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
21%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)
50%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 1.09 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.84

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 0.70 + Sertanense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Sertanense scores more
33%
level
34%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
33%

Sertanense at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Sertanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco

Sertanense and Benfica Castelo Branco drew 1-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos in Sertã.