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Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sertanense
Sertanense
FT
1 – 0
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
9/27/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sertanense12%
×Draw19%
Benfica Castelo Branco69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sertanense
0.74
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.11

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 185% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sertanense
0.89
Benfica Castelo Branco
3.00

allows per match

Sertanense
1.22
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

Sertanense+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sertanense ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sertanense or draw
31%
Sertanense or Benfica Castelo Branco
81%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
88%

Winning margin

Sertanense wins by 2+
3%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Sertanense 1+ goals
52%
Sertanense 2+ goals
17%
Sertanense 3+ goals
4%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
88%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
62%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Sertanense (draw refunded)
15%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sertanense at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sertanense attack 0.89 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.74

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + Sertanense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sertanense scores more
12%
level
19%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
69%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco

Sertanense beat Benfica Castelo Branco 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos in Sertã.