Serrato Pacasmayo 0–7 Cienciano: Result & Stats

Serrato Pacasmayo

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

Cienciano

6/17/2018

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serrato Pacasmayo18%

×Draw18%

Cienciano64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serrato PacasmayoExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.50

Serrato Pacasmayo

1.25

Cienciano

2.50

Cienciano creates 100% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

0.86

creates per match

1.79

3.21

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Serrato Pacasmayo

0.86

Cienciano

1.79

allows per match

Serrato Pacasmayo

3.21

Cienciano

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serrato Pacasmayo ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Serrato Pacasmayo or draw

36%

Serrato Pacasmayo or Cienciano

82%

Draw or Cienciano

82%

Winning margin

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+

7%

Cienciano wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals

71%

Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals

36%

Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals

13%

Cienciano 1+ goals

92%

Cienciano 2+ goals

71%

Cienciano 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)

22%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serrato Pacasmayo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.86 + Cienciano defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cienciano attack 1.79 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more

18%

level

18%

Cienciano scores more

64%

Cienciano at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff