Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cienciano vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
9 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
9/23/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cienciano90%
×Draw7%
Serrato Pacasmayo3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
3.95
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.74

Cienciano creates 434% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cienciano
2.89
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Cienciano
0.68
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
97%
Cienciano or Serrato Pacasmayo
93%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
10%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
76%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
98%
Cienciano 2+ goals
89%
Cienciano 3+ goals
73%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
52%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
17%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
96%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 2.89 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.95

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Cienciano defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Cienciano scores more
90%
level
7%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
3%

Cienciano at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cienciano 9 – 1 Serrato Pacasmayo

Cienciano beat Serrato Pacasmayo 9-1 in Segunda División on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco).