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Serrato Pacasmayo vs Cesar Vallejo — Segunda División 2018

Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
10/21/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 29Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serrato Pacasmayo15%
×Draw19%
Cesar Vallejo65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serrato Pacasmayo
0.98
Cesar Vallejo
2.23

Cesar Vallejo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

creates per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
0.86
Cesar Vallejo
1.24

allows per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
3.21
Cesar Vallejo
1.09

finishing

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serrato Pacasmayo ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Serrato Pacasmayo or draw
35%
Serrato Pacasmayo or Cesar Vallejo
81%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
85%

Winning margin

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
5%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
62%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
26%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
8%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
89%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
65%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
19%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serrato Pacasmayo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.86 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.24 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
15%
level
19%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
65%

Cesar Vallejo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Serrato Pacasmayo 0–3 Cesar Vallejo

Cesar Vallejo beat Serrato Pacasmayo 3-0 in Segunda División on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo).