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Cesar Vallejo vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
7/8/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cesar Vallejo85%
×Draw10%
Serrato Pacasmayo5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
3.37
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.78

Cesar Vallejo creates 332% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.74
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.77
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
95%
Cesar Vallejo or Serrato Pacasmayo
90%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
15%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
68%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
96%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
84%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
63%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
54%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
18%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
94%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.74 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.37

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
85%
level
10%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
5%

Cesar Vallejo at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cesar Vallejo vs Serrato Pacasmayo

Cesar Vallejo beat Serrato Pacasmayo 2-0 in Segunda División on July 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande).