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Serrato Pacasmayo vs Atletico Grau — Segunda División 2018

Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
9/29/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 27Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serrato Pacasmayo23%
×Draw20%
Atletico Grau57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serrato Pacasmayo
1.40
Atletico Grau
2.28

Atletico Grau creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

creates per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
0.86
Atletico Grau
1.35

allows per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
3.21
Atletico Grau
1.93

finishing

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serrato Pacasmayo ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Serrato Pacasmayo or draw
43%
Serrato Pacasmayo or Atletico Grau
80%
Draw or Atletico Grau
77%

Winning margin

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
10%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
75%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
41%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
17%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
90%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
66%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
29%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serrato Pacasmayo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.86 + Atletico Grau defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atletico Grau attack 1.35 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
23%
level
20%
Atletico Grau scores more
57%

Atletico Grau at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serrato Pacasmayo vs Atletico Grau

Atletico Grau beat Serrato Pacasmayo 3-1 in Segunda División on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo).