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Atletico Grau vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
6/24/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Miguel Grau de Piura (Piura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atletico Grau88%
×Draw8%
Serrato Pacasmayo4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
3.90
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.80

Atletico Grau creates 388% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
96%
Atletico Grau or Serrato Pacasmayo
92%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
12%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
74%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
98%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
89%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
72%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
55%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
19%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
96%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.90

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
88%
level
8%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
4%

Atletico Grau at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atletico Grau 5–1 Serrato Pacasmayo

Atletico Grau beat Serrato Pacasmayo 5-1 in Segunda División on June 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau de Piura (Piura).