Serrato Pacasmayo 3–0 Alianza Atletico

Serrato Pacasmayo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Atletico

4/29/2018

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serrato Pacasmayo19%

×Draw20%

Alianza Atletico61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serrato PacasmayoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

2.25

Serrato Pacasmayo

1.20

Alianza Atletico

2.25

Alianza Atletico creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 32 away

0.86

creates per match

1.28

3.21

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Serrato Pacasmayo

0.86

Alianza Atletico

1.28

allows per match

Serrato Pacasmayo

3.21

Alianza Atletico

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serrato Pacasmayo ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Serrato Pacasmayo or draw

39%

Serrato Pacasmayo or Alianza Atletico

80%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

81%

Winning margin

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+

8%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals

70%

Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals

34%

Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals

12%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

89%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

65%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)

24%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serrato Pacasmayo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.86 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.20

Alianza Atletico attack 1.28 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more

19%

level

20%

Alianza Atletico scores more

61%

Alianza Atletico at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff