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Alianza Atletico vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
8/12/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Campeones del '36 (Sullana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alianza Atletico86%
×Draw9%
Serrato Pacasmayo5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
3.61
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.85

Alianza Atletico creates 325% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
2.22
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.91
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
95%
Alianza Atletico or Serrato Pacasmayo
91%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
14%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
70%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
97%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
87%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
67%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
57%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
21%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
94%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.61

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
86%
level
9%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
5%

Alianza Atletico at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Serrato Pacasmayo

Alianza Atletico beat Serrato Pacasmayo 8-0 in Segunda División on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del '36 (Sullana).