Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Serrato Pacasmayo vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
8/5/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serrato Pacasmayo38%
×Draw22%
Alfredo Salinas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serrato Pacasmayo
1.78
Alfredo Salinas
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
0.86
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
3.21
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serrato Pacasmayo ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Serrato Pacasmayo or draw
60%
Serrato Pacasmayo or Alfredo Salinas
78%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
62%

Winning margin

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
20%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
83%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
53%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
26%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
84%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
54%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
49%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serrato Pacasmayo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.86 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
38%
level
22%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
40%

Alfredo Salinas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alfredo Salinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serrato Pacasmayo vs Alfredo Salinas

Serrato Pacasmayo and Alfredo Salinas drew 1-1 in Segunda División on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo).