Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alfredo Salinas vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
4/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alfredo Salinas71%
×Draw15%
Serrato Pacasmayo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfredo Salinas
3.18
Serrato Pacasmayo
1.40

Alfredo Salinas creates 127% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alfredo Salinas
1.36
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Alfredo Salinas
2.00
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfredo Salinas ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Alfredo Salinas or draw
86%
Alfredo Salinas or Serrato Pacasmayo
85%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
29%

Winning margin

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
52%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
96%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
82%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
60%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
75%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
41%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
83%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfredo Salinas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfredo Salinas attack 1.36 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.18

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Alfredo Salinas scores more
71%
level
15%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
14%

Alfredo Salinas at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Alfredo Salinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alfredo Salinas vs Serrato Pacasmayo

Alfredo Salinas beat Serrato Pacasmayo 2-1 in Segunda División on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar).