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Serra Talhada vs Rio Branco-VN — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Serra Talhada
Serra Talhada
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Branco-VN
Rio Branco-VN
Unknown 90+3'
5/2/2025Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Serra Talhada47%
×Draw24%
Rio Branco-VN29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serra Talhada
1.69
Rio Branco-VN
1.29

Serra Talhada creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Serra Talhada
1.89
Rio Branco-VN
0.92

allows per match

Serra Talhada
1.67
Rio Branco-VN
1.50

finishing

Serra Talhada+0.00on par
Rio Branco-VN+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serra Talhada ↓

Rio Branco-VN →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Serra Talhada or draw
71%
Serra Talhada or Rio Branco-VN
76%
Draw or Rio Branco-VN
53%

Winning margin

Serra Talhada wins by 2+
25%
Rio Branco-VN wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Serra Talhada 1+ goals
82%
Serra Talhada 2+ goals
50%
Serra Talhada 3+ goals
24%
Rio Branco-VN 1+ goals
72%
Rio Branco-VN 2+ goals
37%
Rio Branco-VN 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Serra Talhada (draw refunded)
61%
Rio Branco-VN (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serra Talhada at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Rio Branco-VN away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serra Talhada attack 1.89 + Rio Branco-VN defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rio Branco-VN attack 0.92 + Serra Talhada defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Serra Talhada scores more
47%
level
24%
Rio Branco-VN scores more
29%

Serra Talhada at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Serra Talhada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Espírito Santo: Serra Talhada 0–1 Rio Branco-VN

Rio Branco-VN beat Serra Talhada 1-0 in Copa Espírito Santo on May 2, 2025.

Goals: ? (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa in Serra, Espírito Santo.