Serra Talhada 0–1 Rio Branco-VN: Result & Stats

Serra Talhada

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rio Branco-VN

2/16/2024

League #611 · 1st Round - 7Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Serra Talhada59%

×Draw27%

Rio Branco-VN14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serra TalhadaExpected goals in this matchRio Branco-VN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.54

Serra Talhada

1.42

Rio Branco-VN

0.54

Serra Talhada creates 163% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

0.75

0.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Serra Talhada

1.33

Rio Branco-VN

0.75

allows per match

Serra Talhada

0.33

Rio Branco-VN

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serra Talhada+0.00on par

Rio Branco-VN+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serra Talhada ↓

Rio Branco-VN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Serra Talhada or draw

86%

Serra Talhada or Rio Branco-VN

73%

Draw or Rio Branco-VN

41%

Winning margin

Serra Talhada wins by 2+

30%

Rio Branco-VN wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Serra Talhada 1+ goals

76%

Serra Talhada 2+ goals

41%

Serra Talhada 3+ goals

17%

Rio Branco-VN 1+ goals

42%

Rio Branco-VN 2+ goals

10%

Rio Branco-VN 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Serra Talhada (draw refunded)

81%

Rio Branco-VN (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serra Talhada at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Rio Branco-VN away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serra Talhada attack 1.33 + Rio Branco-VN defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rio Branco-VN attack 0.75 + Serra Talhada defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Serra Talhada scores more

59%

level

27%

Rio Branco-VN scores more

14%

Serra Talhada at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Serra Talhada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff