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Serra Talhada vs Porto Vitória — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Serra Talhada
Serra Talhada
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Porto Vitória
Porto Vitória
R. Souza 65'
Wesllen Reis 77'
5/30/2026Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Serra Talhada32%
×Draw24%
Porto Vitória44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serra Talhada
1.40
Porto Vitória
1.69

Porto Vitória creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Serra Talhada
1.89
Porto Vitória
1.70

allows per match

Serra Talhada
1.67
Porto Vitória
0.90

finishing

Serra Talhada+0.00on par
Porto Vitória+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serra Talhada ↓

Porto Vitória →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Serra Talhada or draw
56%
Serra Talhada or Porto Vitória
76%
Draw or Porto Vitória
68%

Winning margin

Serra Talhada wins by 2+
14%
Porto Vitória wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Serra Talhada 1+ goals
75%
Serra Talhada 2+ goals
41%
Serra Talhada 3+ goals
17%
Porto Vitória 1+ goals
82%
Porto Vitória 2+ goals
50%
Porto Vitória 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Serra Talhada (draw refunded)
42%
Porto Vitória (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serra Talhada at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Porto Vitória away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serra Talhada attack 1.89 + Porto Vitória defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.40

Porto Vitória attack 1.70 + Serra Talhada defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Serra Talhada scores more
32%
level
24%
Porto Vitória scores more
44%

Porto Vitória at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Porto Vitória will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
R. Souza
77'
Wesllen Reis
Serra
Porto
Leomir
Manager: Leomir
Burse Joao
Manager: Burse Joao

Copa Espírito Santo: Serra Talhada 1–1 Porto Vitória

Serra Talhada and Porto Vitória drew 1-1 in Copa Espírito Santo on May 30, 2026.

Goals: R. Souza (65'), Wesllen Reis (77').