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Porto Vitória vs Serra Talhada — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Porto Vitória
Porto Vitóriaadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Serra Talhada
Serra Talhada
Erick Salles 83', 78'
Gabriel Rossetto 19'
7/15/2025Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · Quarter-finalsEstádio Kleber José de Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Porto Vitória68%
×Draw18%
Serra Talhada14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto Vitória
2.35
Serra Talhada
0.98

Porto Vitória creates 140% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

Porto Vitória
2.70
Serra Talhada
1.10

allows per match

Porto Vitória
0.85
Serra Talhada
2.00

finishing

Porto Vitória+0.00on par
Serra Talhada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto Vitória ↓

Serra Talhada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Porto Vitória or draw
86%
Porto Vitória or Serra Talhada
82%
Draw or Serra Talhada
32%

Winning margin

Porto Vitória wins by 2+
45%
Serra Talhada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Porto Vitória 1+ goals
90%
Porto Vitória 2+ goals
68%
Porto Vitória 3+ goals
41%
Serra Talhada 1+ goals
62%
Serra Talhada 2+ goals
26%
Serra Talhada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Porto Vitória (draw refunded)
83%
Serra Talhada (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto Vitória at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Serra Talhada away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto Vitória attack 2.70 + Serra Talhada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Serra Talhada attack 1.10 + Porto Vitória defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Porto Vitória scores more
68%
level
18%
Serra Talhada scores more
14%

Porto Vitória at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Porto Vitória will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Gabriel Rossetto
78'
Erick Salles
83'
Erick Salles

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Espírito Santo: Porto Vitória 3–0 Serra Talhada

Porto Vitória beat Serra Talhada 3-0 in Copa Espírito Santo on July 15, 2025.

Goals: Gabriel Rossetto (19'), Erick Salles (78', 83').

The match was played at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade in Cariacica, Espírito Santo.