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Serik Spor vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Serik Spor
Serik Spor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
1/24/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Serik Spor27%
×Draw22%
Esenler Erokspor51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serik Spor
1.32
Esenler Erokspor
1.91

Esenler Erokspor creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Serik Spor
1.47
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Serik Spor
2.11
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Serik Spor+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serik Spor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Serik Spor or draw
49%
Serik Spor or Esenler Erokspor
78%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
73%

Winning margin

Serik Spor wins by 2+
11%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Serik Spor 1+ goals
73%
Serik Spor 2+ goals
38%
Serik Spor 3+ goals
15%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
85%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
57%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Serik Spor (draw refunded)
34%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serik Spor at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serik Spor attack 1.47 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Serik Spor defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Serik Spor scores more
27%
level
22%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
51%

Esenler Erokspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Serik Spor vs Esenler Erokspor

Esenler Erokspor beat Serik Spor 3-0 in 1. Lig on January 24, 2026.